Alan Dix Snip!t: Bayes Theorem and Maximum Likelihood

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Snip summary	So far we have been thinking of the probability for gett... know that the mean value should be . Now suppose we make... get counts, but we don't know anything about , except t... nonnegative, of course. We may turn the question around ... the most li Bayes Theorem and Maximum Likelihood http://www.physics.utah.edu/~detar/phys6720/handouts/statistics/s.../node10.html

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Full snip	So far we have been thinking of the probability for getting a result if we know that the mean value should be . Now suppose we make a measurement and get counts, but we don't know anything about , except that it must be nonnegative, of course. We may turn the question around and ask what is the most likely value for , given the result of our measurement. To make this turned-around idea more concrete, we use the concept of conditional probability.

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So far we have been thinking of the probability for getting a result if we know that the mean value should be . Now suppose we make a measurement and get counts, but we don't know anything about , except that it must be nonnegative, of course. We may turn the question around and ask what is the most likely value for , given the result of our measurement. To make this turned-around idea more concrete, we use the concept of conditional probability.

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