Hills Criteria of Causation
outlines the minimal conditions needed to establish a causal relationship
between two items. These criteria were originally presented by Austin
Bradford Hill (1897-1991), a British medical statistician as a way of
determining the causal link between a specific factor (e.g., cigarette
smoking) and a disease (such as emphysema or lung cancer). Hill's
Criteria form the basis of modern epidemiological research, which
attempts to establish scientifically valid causal connections between
potential disease agents and the many diseases that afflict humankind.
While the criteria established by Hill (and elaborated by others)
were developed as a research tool in the medical sciences, they are equally
applicable to sociology, anthropology and other social sciences, which
attempt to establish causal relationships among social phenomena.
Indeed, the principles set forth by Hill form the basis of evaluation used
in all modern scientific research. While it is quite easy to claim
that agent "A" (e.g., smoking) causes disease "B" (lung cancer), it is quite
another matter to establish a meaningful, statistically valid connection
between the two phenomena. It is just as necessary to ask if the claims
made within the social and behavioral sciences live up to Hill's Criteria as
it is to ask the question in epidemiology (which is also a
social and behavioral science). While it is quite easy to claim that
population growth causes poverty or that globalization causes
underdevelopment in Third World countries, it is quite another thing to
demonstrate scientifically that such causal relationships, in fact, exist.
Hill's Criteria simply provides an additional valuable measure by which to
evaluate the many theories and explanations proposed within the social
sciences.
